The Fed’s blithe confidence in their models and forecasts influenced society’s behavior. Therefore, not only were their models wrong, but their unacknowledged wrongness arguably made things worse.
Comments closedCategory: blog
There are two very different uses of the word probability.
Comments closedIn quantum mechanics — i.e. in the real world as we understand it today — matter can have two kinds of formerly apparently contradictory qualities. The same applies to people.
Comments closedLately it has become fashionable to disparage intuition in favor of careful statistical analysis. Me, I’m still a fan of intuition.
Comments closedIn Hong Kong Island, Kowloon and Macau, the thing that has impressed itself on me through airports and downtowns is the bombardment of luxury advertising.
Comments closedPart of the reason economists and traders are likely to be fooled is because, underlying everything they do is the statistics of what is ultimately human behavior.
Comments closedSelf-schooled in finance and unschooled in economics, I was very glad to be sent a link to Hayek’s Nobel Prize acceptance lecture.
Comments closed“Lola” is executed with great panache, and loosely relevant to economic affairs today. It’s set in a small town in the boom of 1950s West Germany, and is about contagion, the moral kind.
Comments closedI am thoroughly tired of Europe, America, Obama, the Republicans, banks central and peripheral, and everyone’s indignation about the above. And of my own indignation too. It’s affecting my quality of life.
Comments closed1. Everyone is a grownup and no one is more grown up than anyone else.
Comments closedSam Shepard as technocratic cold America vs. Julie Delpy as cultured sophisticated Europe.
Comments closedEveryone avers that honesty, ethics, morality, art, literature, science, etc. are good, but if you look at the way people behave most of the time, their actions give the lie to their beliefs.
Comments closedTwo movies this week, one new — “Margin Call” — and one old a second time — Alan Pakula’s “Klute.” Both didn’t live up to what I expected or recalled.
Comments closedThough Kahneman and I both sometimes use the word intuition, we are talking about different qualities.
Comments closedSomeone directed me to this remark by Larry Page: “DNA is about 600 megabytes compressed making it smaller than any modern operating system like Linux or Windows.”
Comments closedI have the luxury of not being a regulator, which I think is a very difficult job. I used to be a physicist, and Nature doesn’t care about regulations; she cares about principles.
Comments closedAt Times Square on the evening of Oct 15th it felt as though tidal forces were beginning to pull people apart.
Comments closedThis is an extended version of a review I wrote on Amazon for Lucky Bruce: A Memoir.
Comments closedWhy shouldn’t one regard all mental phenomena as meaningful? Why only some?
Comments closedA video featuring Derman discussing his new book.
Comments closedIn this country politicians use polls to try to figure out what people want, and then offer it to them in order to get elected.
Comments closedI went to the NY Film Festival for the first time in years last night and saw David Cronenberg’s A Dangerous Method, a movie about the interactions between Jung, Freud, and Sabina Spielrein who was Jung’s mistress, Jung and Freud’s joint patient sequentially, and an eventual analyst herself.
Comments closedIn this article on nightmares in the WSJ, there is the following paragraph:
Comments closedI came across a very interesting post by Sam Harris about the difficulties of getting paid for being an artist, a writer, or a public intellectual.
Comments closedHaving been a scientist, one of my major pet peeves is the naïve use of science.
Comments closedThe first thing that struck me after I got over my shock at being 10,000 miles from everything I knew was how foreign everyone was. New York was a polyglot city of immigrants.
Comments closedFor a couple of years now I’ve had a bad feeling about the field of finance.
Comments closedIf God had only had a committee of business writers to help him, I think he could have done a better job.
Comments closedI grew up in a post-WWII world where, temporarily, because of their capacity to create devices that wreak destruction, physicists had lots of influence in government.
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